At the bottom for nearly 9 years, small metal cobalt regained market attention with a surge in the market. In the past three months, the cumulative increase in domestic metal cobalt spot has exceeded 60%, and various types of cobalt salts have also risen across the board, and the gains have been out of control. At the same time as the price of cobalt rose, many “buy more†reports on cobalt, such as brokers and industry information, were also frequently released. An industry insider told reporters that "this time, all stakeholders are concentrating on the market and boosting the price of cobalt." Recently, the news of the futures legend Ge Weidong teamed up with the international fund 囤 6,000 tons in the industry, it is a lot of stories for this round of "cobalt heat". When the reporter asked the insider of Ge Weidong’s chaotic investment to verify the matter, the insider said that “it has been rumored that the Soba news is fake.†Nevertheless, many insiders said in an interview with reporters, “Ge Weidong Strontium cobalt should not be fake, but there are discrepancies in quantity." In addition to the hot debate on Ge Weidong's cobalt-cobalt news, the sharp rise in the stock price of many concept stocks also triggered a note. In the past year, Huayou Cobalt (603799) has risen more than three times, and Luoyang Molybdenum has increased by nearly 50%. The market value has not been the same. It is worth noting that in the face of this wave of "cobalt heat", some insiders also said that they still could not see the direction. On the one hand, the price of cobalt has not fluctuated and the price has risen so that the market is worried that it may be suppressed. On the other hand, under the drive of new energy vehicles, the market has also made bold guesses that the price of cobalt has reached a high of 800,000 yuan in 2008. Tons are not known. “50% of supply and demand and speculation each†When the commodities have not fully recovered, the small metal cobalt has taken the lead in launching the skyrocketing. What is the logic behind it? It is indeed the industry consensus that the fundamentals are turning to supply shortages. Cobalt, the earth's crust abundance ranks 33, it is generally difficult to form an independent economic deposit. The primary ore of cobalt is mainly derived from copper-cobalt and nickel-cobalt. 60% of the world's cobalt ore is produced from copper-cobalt ore, 23% from nickel-copper-cobalt sulfide ore, and 15% from laterite nickel-cobalt ore. The other types account for only 2%. However, China's cobalt reserves account for only 1.1% of the world's total, and China's cobalt raw materials are basically imported from the cobalt mine, Congo (Golden). In terms of downstream consumption, cobalt is mainly used in industrial demand such as lithium batteries, high-temperature alloys, hard alloys, and magnetic materials. Among them, lithium battery demand mainly includes traditional 3C digital consumer goods and new energy vehicles. It is worth noting that with the rise of new energy vehicles, global cobalt consumption has undergone tremendous changes in the past two years, and the proportion of new energy vehicles has increased from 3.9% in 2014 to 13.7% in 2016, and the proportion continues. expand. Another growth in cobalt consumption comes from superalloys, but China has not really exploded yet. As mentioned above, cobalt ore mainly comes from associated, while commodities such as copper and nickel have entered the down cycle since 2011, and the enthusiasm of mining enterprises has generally declined, and the supply of associated cobalt has also been suppressed. The data shows that the global cobalt mine growth rate is expected to be -7.67% in 2016, of which the Congo (Gold) annual production decline fell sharply by nearly 10%. The demand for cobalt is driven by new energy vehicles, and the growth rate is expected to be 9.76% in 2016. In the case of a decline in supply and rising demand, there has been a shortage of global cobalt supply in 2016. China Cobalt Industry Association expects that there will be a supply gap in terms of existing production and consumption in 2017, and the market will enter the stage of substantial consumption of inventories. Due to the rare increase in global cobalt production capacity in the next two years, the rigidity of consumption will increase. Obviously, future consumption and supply gaps will stimulate cobalt prices. The rise in cobalt prices does not rule out the improvement of the supply side, but there is no fluctuation in the straight line but it is inseparable from external factors. Xu Aidong, chief analyst of Antaike, said recently that "the characteristics of small varieties, the market is limited, and it is easy to be manipulated by funds and has the potential to break out." Cao Dongqiang, executive director and general manager of Shanghai Gepai Industrial Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Gaipai Industryâ€), said in an interview with reporters that “the rise in cobalt price is the result of several factors, and the fundamentals and speculation should each account for 50%. %." According to Cao Dongqiang, Gepai Industrial is currently the number one importer of metallic cobalt in China. In fact, since the acquisition of 5,200 tons of metallic cobalt in the first half of 2016, the cobalt market has begun to be shaken. Cao Dongqiang mentioned, "Since the second half of last year, people outside the industry have been optimistic about this market, entering this market to bargain up the cobalt and promote the price increase of the market. In addition, there are many private investments, which have something to do with this industry, or understand Cobalt, which has nothing to do with it, has bought more or less." Cao Dongqiang believes that it is precisely in the absence of new supply, relatively large fund companies such as Europe and China are speculating and selling goods, “causing a certain shortage in the spot marketâ€. In addition, along with the rise in cobalt prices, a number of brokerage institutions have successively released reports of “see more†cobalt, and continue to recommend concept stocks such as Huayou Cobalt, GEM, and Luoyang Molybdenum. These “see more†reports are equivalent to market catalysts for the market. At present, the recommended stocks of these brokerages have also risen substantially. In particular, as one of the largest cobalt suppliers in China, Huayou Cobalt has risen three times in price in the past year. On February 23, Huayou Cobalt also announced an abnormal fluctuation in stock trading due to a cumulative deviation of more than 20% from the closing price of three consecutive trading days. What is the truth about “囤6000 tons of cobaltâ€? There are outsiders who "bottom the bottom", who is it? Recently, the news about Ge Weidong samarium was spread. Even if insiders of Chaos Investment deny it, the insiders basically hold the mentality of "I would rather believe it." However, Ge Weidong, who is revered by the futures market, is famous for his short position. Ge Weidong personally directed the "Black Wednesday" of the futures copper market in early 2015, causing the global copper price to collapse. Ge Weidong's cobalt-cobalt news originally came from Reuters, and it has been reported as early as February 14th, and there has been a time lag between the recent domestic fermentation. According to Reuters, Switzerland's focus on mining private equity firms Pala Investments and Ge Weidong's Chaos investment began buying cobalt last year, and their target price is $25/lb or higher. Later, the British media reported that six funds including Shanghai Chaos Investment and Pala Investments have bought about 6,000 tons of cobalt last year, equivalent to 17% of global production last year, worth about 280 million US dollars. However, during the interview, the reporter found that the industry insiders are basically suspicious of the authenticity of 6,000 tons of cobalt. Antai Ke cobalt analyst Liu Lei told reporters that "the global production of metallic cobalt is about 25,000 tons last year, and China is also more than 30,000 tons. The actual demand will not be too bad. The customer is going to grab more than 6,000 tons, which supplier is actually unable to supply." According to Liu Lei, the world's largest metal cobalt manufacturer, the annual output is no more than 5,000 tons, and signed long orders with customers and traders. Liu Lei believes that "if the fund company relies on its own efforts to smash 6,000 tons of goods, it is basically impossible. This is a market logic problem." Cao Guodong also believes that "you have to do 6,000 tons in the spot market, which is almost impossible to achieve. You can't do enough money." It is worth mentioning that, unlike other metal chemicals such as cobalt salts, the demand for metallic cobalt is not so exaggerated. Both Liu Lei and Cao Guodong mentioned that China's annual consumption of metallic cobalt is about 5,000-6,000 tons, which is not an order of magnitude compared with cobalt metal chemicals. But Liu Lei said, "It is now equivalent to finding a fulcrum of metal cobalt, and then speculating the price of chemicals that are larger than it is." Who is profiting? The fund company's bargain-hunting, based on the current cobalt price, has been successful. In addition, more attention has been paid to the increase in the market value of a number of listed companies. Since the Spring Festival, Huayou Cobalt's share price has risen by 53%. And a year ago, the company's stock price was around 19 yuan / share. Huayou Cobalt is also the company with the largest increase in market value during the current round of cobalt price hikes. In addition, the inventory revaluation of Chinese smelters has also made these plants profitable. Liu Lei analyzed that Huayou Cobalt, GEM, and other smelting enterprises with certain stocks will revalue the inventory value. In addition, "the time for raw materials coming from Congo is usually about 40 days. The purchase price of raw materials is generally set according to the shipping price. In the course of maritime transportation, it has actually increased." Liu Lei also mentioned that "the price of chemicals produced subsequently increased, and basically the price of lithium cobalt oxide and cobalt sulphate almost doubled, and the profit is still considerable." However, the smelter has now reluctant to sell. Cao Dongqiang told reporters, "Some manufacturers, such as the production of cobalt sulphate, lithium cobalt oxide, etc., these products are relatively large, and the possibility of reluctance to sell is relatively large." 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